Equities
Driving with the Rear-View Mirror
Will we see a repeat of the past decade of U.S. equity returns?
January 5, 2025
U.S. equities enjoyed a banner decade through the end of the second quarter of 2023. 1 1 Close U.S. Equities refers to the S&P 500 and cash to the ICE BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. 3-Month Treasury Bill throughout (both gross of any fees). Please refer to the end of this piece for index definitions. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Can they do it again?
In this note, we decompose U.S. equity market excess-of-cash returns into four components—dividend yield, real earnings growth, multiple expansion, and the real return on cash—to analyze what assumptions investors need to have about the next ten years to expect a repeat of the past decade, or even historically average performance.
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as such. The factual information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by the author and Chenguang Capital (“Chenguang Capital”) to be reliable
but it is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not
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performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.
This material is not research and should not be treated as research. This paper does not represent valuation judgments with respect to any financial instrument, issuer, security or sector
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represent a formal or official view of Chenguang Capital. The views expressed reflect the current views as of the date hereof and neither the author nor Chenguang Capital undertakes to
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herein.
The information contained herein is only as current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Charts and graphs provided herein are
for illustrative purposes only. The information in this
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successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators
of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Diversification does not
eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.
The information in this paper may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, forecasts or expectations regarding the strategies described
herein, and is only current as of the date indicated. There
is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved, and may be significantly different from that shown here. The information in this document, including statements concerning
financial market trends, is based on current market
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